Wednesday 10 December 2014

Joice Mujuru: What next?

I do not think Joice Mujuru has got the stomach to take the fight to Robert Mugabe. She is not in the mould of Edgar Tekere or her late husband, General Solomon Mujuru.

For much of her career Mujuru was a junior minister. Her rise to the vice presidency took many by surprise. The rumour mill churned out that it was her husband, the late general who leaned on Mugabe to promote her.

Solomon was widely reputed to be the king-maker in Zanu-PF. He was one of the main people responsible for propping Mugabe in the leadership of the party when an internal rebellion almost removed him, during the 1970s.

It was the general's clout that also kept his wife in positions of power. I am convinced one of the reasons why Mugabe treated Joice Mujuru the way he did is because the general is no longer there.

The Harare rumour mill has been awash with speculation that the general's death was not accidental as claimed. Surely the subsequent fate of his wife gives the rumour mongers another dot to connect.

Suggestions that Joice Mujuru join hands with the MDC are totally unworkable. In my books it amounts to nonsense. In what capacity is she going to join the MDC? As its leader or one of Tsvangirai's bum lickers?

Tsvangirai has already shown the handiende (I won't go) spirit. There is as much chance as a snowflake's in hell of him stepping aside to let someone else lead his faction of the MDC.

Even if she defects, I do not think she will take any significant support from Zanu-PF to the MDC. Remember the core of the former's support base is liberation war veterans who believe they suffered in the bush largely because the British refused to be tough with their kith and kin, Ian Smith.

They will always view a party funded by the Westminister Foundation and, they believe, hatched in Western capitals, with suspicion.

Moreover the notion that Mujuru join hands with the MDC is one founded on the extremely shallow presumption that all that is needed is an anti-Mugabe platform. That shallow platform is the main reason why the Zimbabwe opposition has had little success. It is a platform that relies on Mugabe's own blunders to make an impact.

What is needed is a platform that defines core values and principles that can resonate with the people of Zimbabwe. One of those values is anti-corruption and many Zimbabweans believe that some of the mud that has been smeared on Mujuru deserves to stick. She can hardly be a poster-girl for an anti-corruption drive.

It is much better for Joice to remain an ordinary member of Zanu-PF than for her to move over and become a junior member of the MDC. Moving from licking Mugabe's bum to licking Tsvangirai's bum can hardly be called an improvement by anyone in their right senses.

Mind you the political landscape of Zimbabwe is not full of people who are fighting for principled causes. It is full of people who are hunting for opportunities, especially the opportunity to become filthy rich through lavishing off state funds.

I can guarantee you not one of them will be prepared step down a rung on the ladder to opportunity to make room for someone else. Noone in the various MDCes will step out of their top position and hand it over to Mujuru. Maybe Welshman Ncube but I don't think he will want to repeat the same mistake he made with Mutambara.

Can she strike out on her own? Can she form her own party? I doubt very much that she can stand on her own. Her position in Zanu-PF was mainly due to the political acumen and skill of her husband.

Apart from her war record as Teurai Ropa, the only other thing Zimbabweans remember her for is her piqued onslaught against Strive Masiiwa when he was trying to form what is now one of Africa's leading companies, Econet.

I do not think she has the acumen and skill to fight for her own political space. I agree she has got a good launching pedestal, but I don't think she has the wings to fly. If she leaves Zanu-PF chances are that she will just be another Simba Makoni.

Joice Mujuru's political career may be over.

Tuesday 9 December 2014

My Hearfelt Condolences to Zimbabweans

The people of Zimbabwe, I would like to extend my heartfelt condolences to you. Your liberation party is no more. Zanu-PF is no more.

The party lives in name only. The foundations upon which it was built, have been dug up and thrown into the river.

The Zanu-PF that I know, was built of a platform of selfless sacrifice. People, who knew the only guaranteed outcome of joining the liberation war was hardship, gave themselves and their entire lives to the cause of freedom in the name of the party.

I have never considered the vice president to be particularly brilliant or particularly suitable to lead the country. To me she is the least worst of bad choices. However noone in their right senses can deny that she made great personal sacrifices in the years leading to liberation.

In the current situation, I am like a goat asked to choose between the teeth of a hyena and those of a leopard. As far as I am concerned, the person leading the charge against the vice president is even less brilliant and less suitable. Moreover she has not made personal sacrifices to the extend the VP has done.

People like Didymus Mutasa and Sydney Sekeremayi have been synonymous with Zanu-PF since it started ruling the country. One of the few political meetings I ever attended was a rally at Mahusekwa growth point addressed by the Sekeramayi and the late Enerst Kadungure. One of them was wearing a light blue Safari suit and the other a cream Safari suit. That was in 1980 when I was in grade five at St Nicholas.

Zanu-PF has survived many things. It survived Ian Smith, it survived the MDC, but there will be no surviving Grace. I have never witnessed such toxic divisiveness in the history of any party. Long serving cadres of the party have been viciously and ruthlessly attacked, in a manner that seems to have taken them by surprise.

Like battery acid applied to fabric, she has eaten away a huge chunk of the party's unity. I will be surprised if people in Zanu-PF can return to fully trusting each other. In the run up to the supposedly elective congress of Zanu-PF, the party's constitution was torn to smithereens. So much that this whole charade should never ever be called an elective congress but a manipulative congress.

The Mugabe family effectively appointed themselves accuser, judge, jury and executioner for many in Zanu-PF. People have been suspended, expelled, threatened and even arrested simply because of untested allegations from the Mugabe family.

Some Zanu-PF stalwarts like Emmerson Mnangagwa may think they are gaining from this. I am not privy to what exactly is going on in Zanu-PF corridors but I have my doubts that the minister of defence is the ultimate beneficiary of the ongoing purges.

When a lion hunts, it selects its prey and separates it from the rest of the herd. I pointedly do not think Mnangagwa is the lion here. He just another member of a herd that is being carefully sectorized in preparation for the kill.

He might appear to be ascending now, but three years is eternity in politics. Especially when past and present manipulations have shown that there are no guarantees whatsoever to be had.

One thing that is clear is that Mugabe is no longer in full control. It was sad to see him being handed notes and ordered around live on TV. In his own words 'kana nekumba ndoo zvandinoitwa'. What more of a plea for rest do you want from him? At his age Mugabe should be left to rest in peace. He has marched his mile. Let others march on.

Of course crowds have been used unwisely to humiliate long standing Zanu-PF cadres. I do not know if politicians know that there is a difference in meaning between the words 'rent' and 'loyal'. Rented crowds are never loyal crowds.

When the Sunday Mail editor Edmund Kudzayi was arrested, accused of informing on Zanu-PF inner happenings, I pointed out that he was just a tuft of grass kicked up as bulls prepared for a fight.

The just ended wrongly named elective congress of Zanu-PF is by no means the end of the bullfight. One of the bulls may have been charged across the stomach but I have no doubt that it is going to turn around and charge back.

It is my well considered opinion that the next six months to one year are going to be crucial in determining which direction Zanu-PF as a party is going to go.

Whatever happens, the party will never ever be the same again. Broken trust can never be mended. It is like the shattered smithereens of safety glass.



Thursday 4 December 2014

Will true democracy ever take hold in Zimbabwe?

I know Zimbabwe's democracy has been teetering and staggering for a long time. However as of this moment I believe, it is not in intensive care, but in the mortuary.

While Zimbabweans leaders go through the mechanics of democracy, they do everything to make sure the spirit of democracy is defeated. The way the ruling party and the opposition have conducted their internal elections makes it blatantly obvious that none has the democratic spirit at heart.

I do not know if people have noticed the congruency of methods how Tsvangirai eliminated his challengers before the MDC congress and How Mugabe is eliminating his own before the Zanu-PF congress.

Tsvangirai was declared the only presidential candidate long before the MDC congress. Mugabe has similarly been declared the only presidential candidate. Any suggestion that the leader be challenged is treated as treasonous disloyalty warranting severe penalty including expulsion from the party.

The reason why democracy is dead in Zimbabwe is not just Robert Mugabe, but the political culture. Leaders give themselves absolute power like chiefs and village heads. Once a chief always a chief, is the mentality. As they say you can take the African out of the village......

Challengers, perceived, real or potential - are harassed, haunted and intimidated, often violently. Rather than waiting for the elective day for the outcome of the democratic process no stone is left unturned in the effort to make sure the outcome is pre-determined.

Steps are taken to ensure that there is no viable alternative on the elective day. The brave are eliminated while the remainder are cowed into singing praise tunes for one person. What is the purpose of holding an elective congress, if you already know who you want to be leaders?

For a long time I had hoped that since the systems for democracy are in place, Zimbabwe's democracy would grow. My hopes are in vain. Despite the gains brought by the liberation war, democracy is in serious regression in Zimbabwe. A leadership culture that fosters democracy is simply absent from the body politic of the country.

I have been watching the unfolding Zanu-PF leadership tussle with keen interest. What depresses me is that the debate has not gone beyond personal attacks and insults. None of the contestants has presented a coherent case on how they see the future of their party and our country. To me that is a sign that leaders are not thinking beyond themselves.

Claims are now surfacing that some have been visiting witch-doctors and prophets to enhance they chances of landing leadership. That should not surprise anyone. African leaders are well known for seeking supernatural intervention to guarantee their ambitions. Nigeria's TB Joshua had been a very popular destination until his building collapsed. Morgan Tsvangirai and Malawi's Joyce Banda visited him several times.

Perhaps an indication of the levels of selfishness is that none of these leaders ever visits prophets and n'angas to ask for better fortunes for their country. It is always about better fortunes for themselves.

There are a number of serious developmental issues dogging Zimbabwe. These are not being debated. Not once have I heard anyone mention the poor state of national roads, the potholed urban roads, the collapsing health system or the persistent blackouts. These issues were not discussed in the Zanu-PF leadership tussle nor in the preceding MDC leadership tussle.

This suggests that those seeking leadership in the country do not have any ideas on how they want to solve these things.

Maybe I have been too optimistic. What sort of ideas should anyone seriously expect from people who believe that diesel will just flow out of a rock to solve their energy supply problems. People clearly do not know that they need to have meaningful ideas on how to develop a country apart from visiting a witchdoctor or a prophet and then hope that everything else will just fall into place after that.

I also doubt that such people have got any idea on why democracy is crucial and how to foster it in a country.

Wednesday 3 December 2014

Whither Zanu-PF

Senility is not a step function, but a gradually rising slope. When you grow senile, you do not go to bed one evening perfectly normal and lucid, then wake up the following morning a completely incoherent and blabbering wreck.

There may be a lot more in common between the Malawi Congress Party and Zanu-PF apart from that both use the cockerel (jongwe) as their party symbol.

Senility is a gradual process. A person who was once visionary, lucid, decisive and forceful, go through a period where these qualities gradually deteriorate. Some of the qualities may deteriorate faster than the others leading to scenarios where the remaining qualities are misapplied.

Usually the vision and wisdom suffers but the forcefulness remains to be misapplied.

People who are at a distance from the sufferer of senility may not notice it until much later and it has become quite pronounced. Those very close to the sufferer pick it up much earlier because of the constant social contact with the person.

One common consequence is that those close to the person often take advantage of the situation. If the person has authority they usurp his authority and try and use it in their own interest.

Take the example of Malawi. After declaring himself life President Kamuzu Banda grew senile while in power. In the later years of his rule it was an open secret that his 'special hostess' Cecilia Kadzamira and her uncle John Tembo were the ones calling the shots in Malawi.

It is claimed by some that the senile Banda was, during his last days in power, calling members of his cabinet his children. One man told me that he even demanded that they kneel before him like children culturally do in front of their fathers. We call it kuchonjomara in Shona.

Those far away from the halls of power in Malawi thought that Banda was his ruthless self.

The events leading up to the Zanu-PF congress have convinced me that Zimbabwe is going the same route. We now have a leader growing senile, tweaked by close courtiers, while those at some social distance are still hoping for the old willy fox to show its decisiveness and vision and forge a clear direction for Zanu-PF.

Yet the truth is that the old fox is too tired to hold the reigns firmly anymore and Zanu-PF is effectively rudderless. With no clearly succession plan, and many senior leaders seemingly scared of voicing an opinion independent of Mugabe, the party has been hijacked by mafikizolos. Of course they claim to be doing Mugabe's biding yet the truth may be that they are using his few remaining moments of decisiveness to push their own agendas.

Knowing that they would stand no chance in a fair democratic process, the courtiers are hauling themselves up the leadership ladder as fast as they can using Mugabe's name and authority. By the time people realise that Mugabe is too senile to lead, they will hopefully be secure enough in leadership positions to fend off challenges.

After Kamuzu Banda's demise the Malawi Congress Party has been slowly sinking into oblivion. Will Zanu-PF face the same fate?

Zanu-PF and Malawi Congress Party belong to the crop of parties that emerged out of the need to rid Africa of colonial shackles and nefarious cuckoo brained racist policies. Such parties have traditionally enjoyed immense support from the black electorate in the years soon after independence.

However nearly all of these parties that failed to ensure leadership transformation within themselves have lost power. Kenneth Kaunda's United National Independence Party, disappeared from the Zambian political scene, after keeping him at the helm until he lost national power. The Malawi Congress Party also never recovered from keeping Banda too long at the helm.

Only those  revolutionary parties that ensured leadership change from within are still enjoying secure rule. Chama Chama Pinduzi in Tanzania have never been threatened by loss of political power after Julius Nyerere handed over power. FRELIMO in Mozambique are also still ruling securely. The first change of power within Frelimo was due to tragic circumstances but subsequent changes have been smooth.

SWAPO in Namibia also still enjoys national support. Sam Nujoma handed over power decades ago. The ANC also appears to be securely in power despite being rocked by infighting and splits. Two current political parties, COPE and the EFF, are a direct result of splits in the ANC leadership. Both of them were born out of the divisive leadership style of one man, Jacob Zuma, but it looks like the ANC will survive the Jacob Zuma phase.

What will happen to Zanu-PF? So far they have been extremely lucky. Their main opponents, Western capitalists chose the wrong man to lead the push against Mugabe. Had it not been for Tsvangirayi's simple lack of vision, charisma, leadership presence and intuition necessary in statecraft, Zanu-PF would have lost power to him by now.

My personal view is that it is Zanu-PF's failure to renew their leadership from within which will be their main undoing. Zanu-PF, like the Malawi Congress Party, will most likely retain a core base of supporters. They will hang around the political scene for some time.

That is if they do not become the first liberation movement to loose power because of infighting. Already they are making the mistake of mistreating some very well known liberation war fighters like Joice 'Teurai Ropa' Mujuru and Rugare Gumbo.

African culture values long term contribution to a cause. It is very unlikely that the electorate will be happy to see Johhny-Come-Lately's run away with all the glory in Zanu-PF.

I am willing to bet that if Zanu-PF pushes come-from-nowhere people like Grace Mugabe into leadership roles at the expense of long-standing liberation cadres, it will definitely decisively loose the next election.

I think the next six months to one year, not the rubberstamp congress taking place now, will be crucial to determining the fate of Zanu-PF. The attack on Mugabe's potential challengers was cunningly timed to give them little time to regroup. However it does not mean they will not regroup.