Edward Snowden, the man stuck in Russia after releasing some very damaging American secrets is a brave man indeed. Very few people in the world, including Americans, would dare take on the powerful American secret intelligence establishment on matters of principle.
I definitely do believe that Snowden's convictions about freedom, liberty and justice are spot on. However I think he may have escaped the jaws of a Mississippi alligator but he is now in the grip of a Zambezi hippo.
Russia seems to be totally disinterested in Snowden's fate and destination. According to Vladmir Putin, he is a squeeling piglet with no wool. After thinking about Snowden's potential intelligence value to Russians, I think Putin is being disingenuous. He actually know that the Russians have got a woolly mammoth in the hands and there is a lot of wool to be sheared.
From Snowden, the Russians can get information about people he worked with. They are likely to glean information about some of those people's vulnerabilities as well. In other words they are going to find out from Snowden who in the American system they can get drunk.
Everyone seems to think that pressure from Americans is getting most countries to rethink their offers of asylum for snowden. I find it hard to believe that countries like Ecuador are changing their minds because of Joe Biden ranting and raving at them.
I am more inclined to think that it a few well placed bites to the ear by the Russians are achieving that. 'Guys leave him for us.'
Snowden is likely to know some people whose work is so secret that not even their wives know what they do. Imagine the kind of intelligence bonanza it would be for the Russians, to be able to identify even just one or two of such people and their roles. I am sure Snowden can give them much more than one or two names to work with. Information from Snowden is likely to give the Russians a few tiny holes through which they can try and worm deeper into the American intelligence establishment.
As an example take one of the events that turned Snowden against the system he worked for. The CIA got an 'innocent' banker drunk, had him arrested for drunk driving then rescued him to earn his gratitude. The CIA wouldn't have bothered to get the man drunk unless they knew who he worked for and what kind of information he had access to. For them to know that it just didn't happen. They did some other intelligence work upfront. Snowden is a fountain of such upfront intelligence at which the Russians can thirstily drink.
Whether he likes or not Snowden is in a very tight spot and he is going to need big favours to get out of it. The Russians can do him such favours. I don't believe even for a moment that they are going to do it just for the sake of embarrassing the Americans with leaks. They are going to do him a favour because they want to debrief him thoroughly.
Snowden's value for the Russians does not come from poking, prodding and embarrassing the Americans with releases of their secrets. Snowden's value comes from the insight he can give the Russians into the inner workings of some of the most top secret American spying organisations. He has been with both the CIA and NSA.
Snowden effectively has nowhere to go and is already on Russian soil. So time is on the side of the Russians. I think they are going to let him stew a bit and when he is tender enough, they are going to have their meal.
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