Wednesday, 7 August 2013

Why I think the Zimbabwe election was credible

The United States, Britain and Australia have called for an election re-run becuase of 'anomalies' in the voters roll, and they claim a large number of urban voters were 'barred' from voting.

If the voters roll is their main concern, then should never recognize elections in any other country in the region. Zimbabwe has the highest coverage of citizen registration in the region. Its voters roll though not perfect, has therefore the fairest representation of citizenry than any other country in the region.

Other countries including South Africa have got millions of people without even basic documents like a birth-certificate. If the voters' roll were to be the basis for judging the credibility of elections then those countries should be holding permanent reruns.

As for voters claimed to have been barred from voting, nobody has been able to tabulate tell us exactly, how why the voters were turned away. Nobody also is also telling us whether or not those voters eventually voted at other polling stations. The figures that are being bandied about are unsubstantiated thumbsucks like 'almost a million', 'maybe as much as 750 000'.

Mind you being turned away from a polling station does not amount to being barred from voting. Most people are simply referred to a polling station in the correct ward.

Take for example if you are a voter living in Highfield's Egypt Lines. You might turn up at Highfield High One School to vote. In past elections Highfield High One use to be in Highfield constituency and Egypt Lines (just across the road from it) in Glen Norah constituency. You would then be referred to Mukai High School about a kilometre (5 minutes walking distance) down the road. That does not amount to being barred from voting.

This is quite common in urban areas because of the higher population density and closer proximity of polling stations in different wards and constituencies as opposed to sparsely populated rural areas. People make a beeline for the polling station that is physically nearest to them.

So there is absolutely no anomaly in higher numbers of urban voters being referred to other polling stations. That does not amount to being barred from voting.

Anyway, what is the beef about? The MDC won in those urban areas didn't they?

If these countries are not going to lift sanctions against Zimbabwe it has got nothing to do with the credibility of Zimbabwe's elections. They are definitely far much more credible then the actions of the bunch of generals in Egypt to whom they are sending billions of dollars worth of weapons and money. And the situation in Zimbabwe is definitely far much more peaceful.

The only reason they are going to keep the sanctions is because they do not want to aid Nationalist, Afro-Centric and Pan-Africanist policies of Mugabe in any way. In the long run those policies are going to make the former colonialists, the wealth they now possess and whose claim to it is only on the basis of past colonial thuggery.

People often quote the results of the 2008 presidential election as evidence that the MDC was much more popular than Zanu-PF. That is not true. The MDC was neck and neck with Zanu-PF in the parliamentary election. They both had 46% of the vote, with Zanu-PF even slightly ahead.

That Tsvangirai was far ahead of Mugabe was in no small part due a secret campaign codenamed 'bhora musango' (shoot off target) by some Zanu-PF candidates to direct the presidential vote elsewhere. That is why Tsvangirai had 48% and Mugabe at 43% was 3% below his party's popular vote.

This time around the Zanu-PF slogan was 'bhora mugedhi' (shoot right between the goalposts!). Zanu-PF was now pulling as a unit. If Tsvangirai failed to beat Mugabe when some Zanu-PF members were campaign against their leader, how can people expect him to beat Mugabe now, when everyone in Zanu-PF had been whipped into line.

Besides, the arrogance with which he treated breakaway factions of his own party was a clear indication to Zanu-PF members who may have wished to work with him, that they better stick with the devil they know. No meaningful effort was ever made by Tsvangirai to reach out to these disgruntled Zanu-PF members and the MDC completely ignored the 'bhora musango' phenomenon.

How can people expect a party that fails to seize such opportunities to win.

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