Whither Zanu-PF

Senility is not a step function, but a gradually rising slope. When you grow senile, you do not go to bed one evening perfectly normal and lucid, then wake up the following morning a completely incoherent and blabbering wreck.

There may be a lot more in common between the Malawi Congress Party and Zanu-PF apart from that both use the cockerel (jongwe) as their party symbol.

Senility is a gradual process. A person who was once visionary, lucid, decisive and forceful, go through a period where these qualities gradually deteriorate. Some of the qualities may deteriorate faster than the others leading to scenarios where the remaining qualities are misapplied.

Usually the vision and wisdom suffers but the forcefulness remains to be misapplied.

People who are at a distance from the sufferer of senility may not notice it until much later and it has become quite pronounced. Those very close to the sufferer pick it up much earlier because of the constant social contact with the person.

One common consequence is that those close to the person often take advantage of the situation. If the person has authority they usurp his authority and try and use it in their own interest.

Take the example of Malawi. After declaring himself life President Kamuzu Banda grew senile while in power. In the later years of his rule it was an open secret that his 'special hostess' Cecilia Kadzamira and her uncle John Tembo were the ones calling the shots in Malawi.

It is claimed by some that the senile Banda was, during his last days in power, calling members of his cabinet his children. One man told me that he even demanded that they kneel before him like children culturally do in front of their fathers. We call it kuchonjomara in Shona.

Those far away from the halls of power in Malawi thought that Banda was his ruthless self.

The events leading up to the Zanu-PF congress have convinced me that Zimbabwe is going the same route. We now have a leader growing senile, tweaked by close courtiers, while those at some social distance are still hoping for the old willy fox to show its decisiveness and vision and forge a clear direction for Zanu-PF.

Yet the truth is that the old fox is too tired to hold the reigns firmly anymore and Zanu-PF is effectively rudderless. With no clearly succession plan, and many senior leaders seemingly scared of voicing an opinion independent of Mugabe, the party has been hijacked by mafikizolos. Of course they claim to be doing Mugabe's biding yet the truth may be that they are using his few remaining moments of decisiveness to push their own agendas.

Knowing that they would stand no chance in a fair democratic process, the courtiers are hauling themselves up the leadership ladder as fast as they can using Mugabe's name and authority. By the time people realise that Mugabe is too senile to lead, they will hopefully be secure enough in leadership positions to fend off challenges.

After Kamuzu Banda's demise the Malawi Congress Party has been slowly sinking into oblivion. Will Zanu-PF face the same fate?

Zanu-PF and Malawi Congress Party belong to the crop of parties that emerged out of the need to rid Africa of colonial shackles and nefarious cuckoo brained racist policies. Such parties have traditionally enjoyed immense support from the black electorate in the years soon after independence.

However nearly all of these parties that failed to ensure leadership transformation within themselves have lost power. Kenneth Kaunda's United National Independence Party, disappeared from the Zambian political scene, after keeping him at the helm until he lost national power. The Malawi Congress Party also never recovered from keeping Banda too long at the helm.

Only those  revolutionary parties that ensured leadership change from within are still enjoying secure rule. Chama Chama Pinduzi in Tanzania have never been threatened by loss of political power after Julius Nyerere handed over power. FRELIMO in Mozambique are also still ruling securely. The first change of power within Frelimo was due to tragic circumstances but subsequent changes have been smooth.

SWAPO in Namibia also still enjoys national support. Sam Nujoma handed over power decades ago. The ANC also appears to be securely in power despite being rocked by infighting and splits. Two current political parties, COPE and the EFF, are a direct result of splits in the ANC leadership. Both of them were born out of the divisive leadership style of one man, Jacob Zuma, but it looks like the ANC will survive the Jacob Zuma phase.

What will happen to Zanu-PF? So far they have been extremely lucky. Their main opponents, Western capitalists chose the wrong man to lead the push against Mugabe. Had it not been for Tsvangirayi's simple lack of vision, charisma, leadership presence and intuition necessary in statecraft, Zanu-PF would have lost power to him by now.

My personal view is that it is Zanu-PF's failure to renew their leadership from within which will be their main undoing. Zanu-PF, like the Malawi Congress Party, will most likely retain a core base of supporters. They will hang around the political scene for some time.

That is if they do not become the first liberation movement to loose power because of infighting. Already they are making the mistake of mistreating some very well known liberation war fighters like Joice 'Teurai Ropa' Mujuru and Rugare Gumbo.

African culture values long term contribution to a cause. It is very unlikely that the electorate will be happy to see Johhny-Come-Lately's run away with all the glory in Zanu-PF.

I am willing to bet that if Zanu-PF pushes come-from-nowhere people like Grace Mugabe into leadership roles at the expense of long-standing liberation cadres, it will definitely decisively loose the next election.

I think the next six months to one year, not the rubberstamp congress taking place now, will be crucial to determining the fate of Zanu-PF. The attack on Mugabe's potential challengers was cunningly timed to give them little time to regroup. However it does not mean they will not regroup.