Met Department my foot!!!

Recently a cabinet minister accused the Department of Meteorology of lying about the water levels in Lake Kariba. According to him government asked the Met department whether it was going to rain and when they were told yes, they came to the conclusion that Lake Kariba would be full.

Zimbabwe is run by people who are so desperately ignorant that it is frightening.

Firstly most of the rain that falls in Zimbabwe does not go into Kariba. Half of the rain flows eastwards into the Save, Limpopo and Pungwe river systems. Most other river systems like Hunyani and Mazowe feed into the Zambezi below the Kariba Dam.

Only Zivagwe, Munyati and Shangani rivers feed into Kariba. But their catchment areas are the drier regions of the country. In short more than three quarters of the rain that falls in Zimbabwe has no chance of ending up in Lake Kariba. Consequently you cannot use rainfall predictions in Zimbabwe to extrapolate the big lake's water levels.

Therefore accusing the meteorological department of Zimbabwe of 'lying' over those water levels is rather negatively revealing about the minister's own knowledge.

The main catchment area of the Zambezi is in Angola and Zambia. Last time I checked the Zimbabwe Met Department did not have weather stations in that area. Maybe Undenge is more knowledgeable on the subject than I am, but I doubt.

To blame the Met Department for the water levels in Kariba does not only show ignorance, it also shows that the issue of energy shortage is being handled lackadaisically and negligently. No serious minister would not know the complex hydrological (not meteorological) considerations that go into management of a water reservoirs.

The best place to start would be the hydrology unit or department of the ministry of water. I deliberately use the words 'best place to start'. That is because if you expect to get all your answers in that one unit, you are a very lazy person. There are many other factors that affect rainfall run-off. Among them ground permeability and percolation.

The type of underlying rock in a region will affect how much water will actually end up in run-off dependent reservoirs. There is an entire scientific field called hydro-geology that deals with that. Ground topology and human activity such as presence of a large paved urban area also affect run-off.

Besides, in order to be able to understand all the factors, years of diligently gathering data are needed. You can't just wake up one morning, rush to the Met Department and ask, "Is it going to rain?"

If they answer "Yes sir!" you then expect Kariba to be full the next morning. What about evaporation patterns? What about past rainfall patterns. If previous seasons were dry the ground will absorb more water before you start getting significant run-off.

Undenge also seems quite misinformed about the kind of authority the Zimbabwe government has over the Kariba dam sluice gates. The dam is managed by the Zambezi River Authority. This is organisation is jointly owned by Zambia and Zimbabwe.

In addition all countries that are materially affected by the Zambezi, among them, Angola, Zambia, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Mozambique have a say in the management of the river through the SADC Protocol On Shared Watersources.

Moreover, as minister of energy, Undenge is supposed to be a member of the four person ministerial committee that heads the ZRA.

In short Undenge has got absolutely nothing to blame the Met Department for. They are not responsible for doing a job the he should be doing. He didn't ask the right series of questions from all the relevant departments. His perceptions about the level of water in the Kariba is what is called a thumb-suck.

Undenge's scepticism about the Met Department is entirely unfounded. However it would be well grounded to have scepticism about his capabilities.

His pointing of fingers is what is called blame-shifting or passing the buck. He is passing it to the wrong people. This is a buck that stops with government. They are ultimately responsible for the incorrect allocation of resources that has led to the energy crisis.