Open Letter to General Chiwenga

Open Letter to General Chiwenga

Sinyoro. Vazungu vakabva Gouveia nengarava. Vanopira midzimu nemvura. My apologies if I got your totem wrong.

I am addressing this to you because I believe you are the man with the power to determine the direction Zimbabwe takes right now. Though it is not official, you are the man in charge.

Firstly I would like to remind you of one slogan that you used to say in those difficult days at pungwes and other dangerous situations as you put your life on the line for Zimbabwe's freedom. The days of the liberation struggle.

One man one vote.

That slogan epitomizes what you fought for. Self determination by the Zimbabwean people. The right of the Zimbabwean people to choose their leaders.

I believe your current actions are correct. Yes the people of Zimbabwe voted for Robert Mugabe, but it is clear he is increasingly incapacitated by old age. Such that his powers were being manipulated by his young wife and other usurping court jesters close to her. I agree with you. Those antics were destabilizing Zimbabwe.

Thanks to your professionalism, vigilance and able leadership of the defence forces, Zimbabwe is not in an unstable state.

As such I do not believe an interim period of stabilization is needed. We can go to elections in 90 days as stipulated by the constitution that you showed us when you announced your intention to stabilize Zimbabwe's politics.

Having a lengthy interim period can only serve patronage purposes. That is to allow some people to enjoy the benefits of power, without facing the generality of Zimbabwe's population. Nobody deserves that because they have not been voted for by the people of Zimbabwe. Only Robert Mugabe won a presidential election. Others need to win their own mandates.

However, the speaker of parliament Jacob Mudenda can be acting president for 90 days. He is a neutral person in terms of those who have expressed interest in power. I have got absolute confidence in you and your ability to maintain Zimbabwe's stability under that arrangement.

Those who have expressed interest in power, vana ED, vana Joice, vana Morgiza, vana Nkosana Moyo and others, can hit the campaign trail. They need to convince us, the people of Zimbabwe, that they deserve our votes.

Aka kamukadzi aka, if she wants she can campaign too. But hehehe. Regai ndinyarare.

In terms of the Zanu-PF factional fight, give everyone a fair chance. Imposing a specific person on Zanu-PF is no different from Mugabe imposing Grace. Let Zanu-PF go to congress. Adyiwa adyiwa. The winner contests national elections and becomes president.

I recommend the above course of action to you, because it maintains the primacy of the constitution. It is also the one least likely to bring you into conflict with SADC and the African Union. With the likelihood of external intervention attempts, such a conflict will mean much worse instability for Zimbabwe than that which you prevented.

Sinyoro.
Guvheya.
Vazungu.
Vemachira machena.
Vakauya nengarava.
Vene vemagidi.

Ndateterera. Ndinzweiwo mwana wenyu.

So what does the political future hold for Zimbabwe?

So what does the political future hold for Zimbabwe?

My gut feeling is that political parties without liberation credentials, that is the MDC and its various mutations, are the biggest political losers in current developments. Their campaign platform has been little apart from Mugabe must go.

Now he is going and they are not even part of making him go. If I may ask what is their relevance now?

In fact, they spend much of their political lives insulting and denigrating the military who are bringing the change they failed to.

Zimbabweans, especially the rural population, do have an affinity to politicians with liberation credentials.

I am willing to bet all my cows that we have not seen the last of general Chiwenga on the political scene. There will be a lot of relief and gratitude among Zimbabweans that he managed a very, very difficult situation without bloodshed. That is a significant political investment in his benefit.

Is Emmerson Mnangagwa the next main man? It is clear he imagines himself to be but I doubt. Many Zimbabweans are not comfortable with his history as an enforcer for Mugabe. The nickname Ngwena stems from that people for a long time have said he has the cruelty of a crocodile.

I am personally not comfortable with his regionalistic rhetoric. My home district was part of the Midlands and fits into the circle of what he defines as 'his' people but for me that is a myopic view for a national politician to ever espouse.

His definition of Karanga ethnicity is anyway plain wrong. It based on  British drawn provincial boundaries that did not even take into account ethnicity. It has nothing to do with ethnic identity as defined by Shona culture.

I also do not think General Chiwenga would take power and hand it over to someone else. He would probably be keenly aware of what happened in the history of ZANLA. Rex Nhongo supressed a rebellion and handed power to Mugabe. We all know Rex Nhongo's (aka Solomon Mujuru) ending was not good.

What about Joice Mujuru. She has some political capital and if she were to face Mnangagwa in an election I think she would win. However with Chiwenga in the picture the script changes considerably.

Jonathan Moyo is living evidence that intellectualism does not amount to political skill. When you are a good intellectual others can use you but sometimes you cannot use yourself.

My gut feeling is that at some point in the near future we are likely to have a President Chiwenga.

Grace Mugabe has very badly exposed her husband

The man needs Zanu-PF stalwarts

Which ever way I look at what is happening in Zimbabwe, I see Robert Mugabe having moved out of his safe zone. Splintering Zanu-PF is like two brothers starting a fight with huge antagonistic bouncers cracking their knuckles in the wings itching to get their hands on one of them.

Whichever side Mugabe IS NOT on, is likely to receive influential, if not material, help from the powerful and rich West. Those guys' hands are itching to get hold of Mugabe over what he did to their interests, not only through land reform, but through other spiteful policies that resulted in closure of mostly Western owned industries in Zimbabwe.

An example is the Look East policy enacted after Mugabe was banned from travelling to the West. It was spiteful and caused significant damage to Western owned Zimbabwe industries and the country's economy.

Those who blinkeredly created disunity in Zanu-PF have left Mugabe very, very badly exposed. When Zanu-PF splinters the side that gets assistance from outside is likely to come out on top. They will get valuable intelligence to outmanoeuvre the other.

Why is that important? A country like Zimbabwe simply does not have the wherewithal to counter say the CIA's technological sophistry and reach. They can listen phone conversations, track people and vehicles almost at will. Not to mention that buildings are probably crawling with listening devices.

Whatever is discussed it is very very likely the Americans will know much of it and feed intelligence to the side side they prefer.

Neighbouring countries, especially South Africa, facing problems because of the influx of Zimbabwean economic refugees not likely to mount a defence of Mugabe like Thabo Mbeki did.

I haven't made up my mind yet, but the fact that Chiwenga was on a visit to China just before he made his threat to 'step in' means that the G40 faction cannot hope for much support from that quarter.

Even inside the country it is entirely delusional to think that Grace carries the electoral clout to win an election. It is also completely misreading history and the country to think that plain thuggery can keep her in power. Plain thuggery failed to keep Ian Smith in power.

Robert Mugabe was genuinely popular especially in the early days of independence. He was even loved by the West. That support has waned, but he has been lucky to have no meaningful challengers. By people meaningful I mean challengers with a clear people-centric message.

Whoever is on Mugabe's side will be fools if they do not realize they are the ones whose fortunes are very very thinly stretched. Whatever advantage they have inside Zanu-PF, in the long run, will be cancelled out by the very powerful interests likely to support the other side.

So far noone split from Zanu-PF has made significant effort to get outside help. But the temperature of the factionalism now is such that they have no choice.

The people who are being shed now have liberation credentials which means they are far much more likely to get a more sympathetic ear from fellow liberation movements like ANC, FRELIMO, MPLA, SWAPO, etc than the MDC would get.

For the factionalists in Zanu-PF their best hope is to keep everyone on board. Keep Zanu-PF united.

Ngavarege kudziirwa vachikanganwa kunge mbeva dziri mubani risina mwena. They should not gallivant around like mice in a plain without boltholes. When the cat comes there will be nowhere to run.

Nyamhere River: How did Zanu-PF get into Grace's Hands?

Zanu-PF stalwarts have allowed themselves to be found frolicking naked in the pool

As you walk out of the small ravine, up the well beaten scotch-cart track you see the tree. Branches clawing scraggly at the sky, the mutamba (wild locquat) tree stands forlornly and is if in lonely perpetual prayer. It stands in Sekuru Matambo's field, scattered with dry maize stalks from last year's crop.

Your tired feet scuff the earth, battling step by step eating away the the distance, perambulating you past the tree towards the Muketa homestead. Further down is Mudhara Hahuhunanzvi's homestead. His name means "you will not lick the beer" and I am not offering any prizes for guessing his favourite passtime.

You lurch past the Muketa homnestead towards the headman's homestead. Nobody has ever seen him behind the wheel of a motor vehicle but he is popularly known as Driver. He is a wizzened wise old man, Mudhara Hahuhunanzvi's older brother. Driver is Chararamiro village's very own Google search engine for wisdom.

You saunter past the headman's home, past of that of his younger brother popularly known as Ngundu, also another eternal fountain of wisdom. As you stroll out of the village, you stumble into the thicket of mutondo shrubs. In the distance you see the snaking dark vegetation marking its course.

You are coming to Nyamhere River.

Its flow is seasonal, but there are a few deep pools that do not go dry throughout the year. One of them is Chembiti. Its banks are lined by evergreen grass, a couple of rocks jutting into the pool like a jetty.

Chembiti was our favourite spot for swimming and bathing. We would discard our clothes, draping them over the mutondo and acacia shrubs lining the river bank and spend most of the day splashing about in the pool.

It is a pity we knew nothing about the Olympics. There were a couple of swimmers like Fortunate Maputi and my best friend Stanford Chiraramiro who would have made the cut in any Olympic team.

Now let us the depart the realm of fact and delve into imagination. Suppose a madman, happened upon us as we splashed naked in Chembiti pool on Nyamhere river. Unseen by us, he tip-toes among the shrubs collecting our clothes, stuffing them in his dirty bag.

Suddenly we see him!

"Hey!" goes out the collective shout. "What are you doing? Leave our clothes!"

Instead of heeding our calls the madman heads off across the short grass of Muchovhu plain. His legs windmilling faster than an aeroplane propeller, he runs fast away from us. We all take off after him trying to get back our clothes.

Suppose a stranger spies this scene, a bunch of naked people running after a fully clothed man, what is their conclusion likely to be? Who are they going to call mad? Mapenzi ndeapi?

Now imagine a bunch of Zanu-PF stalwarts running after Grace Mugabe for power. Mapenzi ndeapi? Who are the mad people here?

I have a question for the stalwarts. Where were you and what were you doing while your legacy was being taken from you?

Why was Zanu-PF formed? Was the party not formed to serve the interests of the people? How could you allow the party to be personalized in front of your eyes.

The stalwarts have been found naked because their political lives are no longer clothed with the people's interests. All they ever talk about is themselves getting into power. "When I rule. When I rule." that is all we hear from them.

The stalwarts have been frolicking naked in pools of luxury while the people suffer in the wilderness of an economic meltdown.

If you are not clothed with the people's interests you will never walk the road to power the same way I can always walk the road to Chembiti.

These stalwarts are mapenzi evanhu. Hamuna kushonga zvido zvevanhu saka muchitorerwa masimba.

Pamberi nevanhu veZimbabwe yese!!!