I have noticed that African governments seem to be aping the actions taken in the West to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak rather than doing what they should do. That is doing the hard work of formulating solutions that work for African circumstances.
It is wrong to assume that methods that work in the West will work in Kenya, South Africa or Somalia in general.
If the government is contemplating lockdowns they must think carefully if that is possible at for the very poor.
Most people who live in informal settlements survive on a day by day basis. My effort of today will determine whether I have a meal tomorrow. Most such people do not even have bank accounts let alone savings.
There is no way you can expect such people to 'stay at home'. If I live by collecting waste I have to collect my waste daily to make ends meet. Even if you close the dumpsite or recycling plant I still have to find some way of eating and that will not happen while I am sitting inside my shack.
Yes, there has been panic buying but that is the middle class who by far are not the majority. The average person in the township let alone an informal settlement cannot afford to buy a whole month's supply of food let alone toilet paper.
Any lockdown is therefore likely to very quickly breakdown. Because of corruption and colonialism induced poverty most of Africa's people cannot absorb the economic shock of staying at home for weeks. Only those who have pieces of land for self-sustenance are the only ones who can stay at home.
There is also the matter of cultural beliefs. We know very well that many many people would rather listen to the word of the ubiquitous pastors or other traditional healers than proper logic. Many such people would try to reach those they believe can help them by any means necessary.
If you can be made to drink petrol or sprayed with insecticide in the name of holiness you are very likely to ignore the official word and be very desperate to get "blessings" from the one you believe has supernatural power.
So African governments should not think what is being done in Italy, France or even China will work in Africa. For example, you cannot afford to close shops in the townships because so many people live hand to mouth. If you close shops you are going to have riots and looting in a few days.
Already advice on social distancing is being ignored at taxi ranks. In many cases, advice based on European social norms is not even practical. For example, how practical is social distancing for people who use communal toilets and a communal water source?
Even if you stay so many metres apart chances are infections are going to contaminate any one of the communal points of interaction.
I do not know what can really work in the African context and I do not think anybody does. The only real solution is to try and ramp up treatment capacity.
That capacity does not exist because nearly all our politicians waste millions of dollars seeking treatment in foreign countries.
