Why is Zimbabwe's economy seemingly unfixable

People struggle to understand what happened when two years ago Zimbabwe had enough money to buy fuel, pay for electricity and provide basic services -issuing notional documents. All of a sudden money seems to be running out for everything. The explanation is simple. The rate of misuse of money by those in power has increased. Money is not always openly misused but can be secretly misused such as the recent case of the former director of state residences facilitating the importation of 81 vehicles duty-free. That is not direct misuse but misuse through denying the state revenue that is due to it. Just imagine how many state officials are facilitating the evasion of statutory payments by friends, family, and small houses. How much revenue us being lost to that kind of activity. Hands up those who think the Buggatis and Lamborghinis that were imported during Mnangagwa's tenure paid full duty? The shortage of money means that those kinds of activities, and direct dipping into state coffers through allocating oneself allowances and the like, has increased to a rate where the economy cannot sustain it anymore. That is all there is to Zimbabwe's economic woes. The notion that 'dialogue' can solve a problem is based on the premise that if Zimbabwean political actors are seen to be reconciled, then particularly Western donors can pour in money at a rate that can cover for the shortfall caused by misuse. Or that they can allow Zimbabwe to borrow money from Breton Woods institutions for further misuse. Anybody who is a little bit versed in international statecraft will know that Western governments have got sophisticated think tanks, researchers and intelligence agencies. Therefore they are very likely to be gathering hard facts for themselves and not just rely on statements made by the government. They are likely to have full information on goings-on including that which politicians think it is secret. For that reason, they are unlikely to put in significant money into a system where they know it is going to be misused the moment it lands in Zimbabwe. Even the Eastern allies of Zimbabwe, China, Malaysia, for example, are keeping their money out of Zimbabwe unless there is an immediate return. Neighbours as well have become reluctant to subsidize the profligate misuse of money by Zimbabwe politicians. South Africa and Mozambique basically stopped supplying energy (electricity) to Zimbabwe on credit.
The regional political tone towards Zimbabwe has become muted, even hostile, since Mugabe's departure. Mugabe who possessed oratory skills light years ahead of Mnangagwa was famously admired for his pan-African rhetoric in a way that was able to withstand an onslaught of demonizing Western propaganda. Mnangangwa not only lacks similar oratory skills but clearly does not possess the same ideological and philosophical depth as his predecessor. He also seems so desperate to get funding that he quickly rushes announcements without seriously considering the implications on his support base. For all its warts and pimples Zanu-PF was a born an African Nationalist movement that primarily first sought liberation of Africans from colonial talons followed by their economic emancipation. That solid ideological base needs protection and Mnangagwa simply appears out of his depth when it comes to ideology. Perhaps he should consider the fate of the MDC. Despite huge amounts of funding and populist rhetoric has not managed to progress to anything beyond a personality cult, because it lacks a solid ideological foundation. Therefore Mnangagwa should stop thinking that abandoning Zanu-PF's nationalistic stance will yield immediate economic utopia. It is likely to lead to a long term political death. The real solution to Zimbabwe's economic problems lies in tackling the rampant abuse of state authority. And this is not just in the form of criminally prosecutable corruption. The perks and allowances to officials are scandalous. People buy brand new cars in order to be laid off in possession of cars. The leeway which managers are given to abuse state resources in the name of status is obscene. People are running their farms using diesel abusively obtained from departments they are running. Many departments are running without meaningful audit trails or with abuse blatantly passed off as official perks. To fix Zimbabwe's economy, Mnangagwa needs to tackle that ecosystem of abuse. As long it remains in place, money added to the Zimbabwe economy will be like trying to farm fish in a dam full of crocodiles. The pun is entirely accidental. Kufudzira mbudzi musango rine mapere chaiko.

Aid should never be made a political tool

The recent hullabaloo over American 'aid' deliveries to Venezuala need to be put in proper context.

The crass and blatant use of aid as a political tool is least damaging to Venezualans who live in a relatively stable state. It is much more damaging to all legitimate recipients around the world whose governments and other non-state actors may stop trusting aid organisations.

This attempt is similar to past American use of a fake vaccination program to gather intelligence on Osama bin Laden's family. As a direct result of that, also crass, action real aid workers were murdered by fundamentalist militants and terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

USAID has been doing sterling work in many countries all over the world. The current actions in Venezuala will undermine its work among communities that badly need the support. On top of that the reduced trust of aid workers, American and other nationalities, will create problems of trust and endanger lives.

Governments will, rightly, become suspicious that aid and USAID may be used by The USA in coercive or some other endesired action against them. My worry is not those governments and the Americans, but the people who need and sometimes depend on the aid in life and death situations.

They will become victims of a clumsy foreign policy that lanks in finese and diplomatic skill. I am not a fan of Maduro. His populist policies are very much similar to those I have witnessed destroy my country's economy. Bur right now Venezualans are being asked to choose between a viper and a rattlesnake, both venomous snakes.

I do not think American policies will help Venezualans. I think they are more likely to cause the state to impplode followed by a period of chaos as we have witnessed in Iraq and Libya. It is possible that is what the Americans want. Their actions look like the classical divide and rule script.

South Africa's Electricity Shortage: The Plan That Was

One thing that people seem to be overlooking is that Eskom's electricity supply problems originate or could be solved in Zimbabwe, DRC and Mozambique.

How so? Twenty years ago around 1997 I was working with the forecasting engineer for ZESA, the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority.

Most people seem to be unaware but there is a body called the Southern African Power Pool. The electricity transmission grid of the region is linked from Tanzania to Cape Town. That means power generated in say Inga Dam in the DRC can be utilised in Port Elizabeth through the common transmission system.

Those familiar with power system economics may know that the cheapest form of electrical power is hydroelectricity. You build a dam and gravity does the work for you for decades. Coal power stations are expensive and difficult to operate.

With a hydro-plant you just open your sluice gates and within minutes you are ready to synchronise your unit to the grid system.

With a coal plant it is like lighting a braai fire. You have to get the fire right before you put the meat on. And that is a very small fire which does not require precision or very high temperatures.

With a coal boiler it takes several hours to a day to get the boiler temperature right and steam generation going. So say if an alternator has a problem and you fix it 30 minutes you may spend the rest of the day just getting the boilers going again.

While I was working with the ZESA forecaster we discussed the electricity needs of the region, by 2007. Then that was ten years in the future. Expert opinion was that demand in South Africa was going to grow strongly due to increased domestic demand as the black population was brought online. The natural growth of industry and commerce was also expected to increase at above average rates due to the fact that the black population would now be participating more in those activities without racist restrictions of the past.

I remember going through Mr Ikhupileni Dube's spreadsheets which indicated that by 2007 South Africa was unlikely to meet it's own demand. What SAPP experts considered to be the most optimum option then was that Zimbabwe and Zambia would build Batoka Gorge, a long talked about additional power station on the Zambezi upstream of Kariba, DRC would increase capacity at Inca Dam and Mozambique would increase capacity at Carbora Basa and those countries would supply South Africa with cheap hydro-electricity.

That was in 1997 and thinking was that governments would provide funding and definitely by 2007 and latest by 2010 more hydro-capacity would be available in the SAPP. The Matimba-Insukamini transmission line was build around the time as part of the strategy to increase transmission capacity to South Africa.

The longest DC transmission lines in Africa, Inca - Kolwezi build in 1979, and Carbora Basa - Apollo Substation (in Midrand) build in 1982 were built as party of the strategy for South Africa to tap into the cheap hyro-power potential of large rivers to the north.

That is what experts thought.

I find irony in that infrastructure to that end was built by the apartheid government despite countries being hostile to it, while the post-apartheid government seems to have the opposite intentions. We will build everything on our own, is their thinking.

Zimbabwe descended into economic chaos, DRC into war and in Mozambique nothing significant happened. In Zimbabwe the mismanagement is so bad that the country is now having to scrounge for electricity from South Africa despite its much smaller population and the massive hydro-potential of the Zambezi.

It looks like South Africa decided to go it alone and rely on its coal reserves, which are expensive . You have to mine the coal and transport it constantly. It is also  less reliable. You are working with high temperatures thus your MTTF (mean time to failure) is bound to be short compared to hydro.

South Africa scrambled to build Medupi and Majuba power stations. I think it was part necessity and part isolationist thinking.

However building very large coal power stations has its own drawbacks. A failure can knock out your grid by removing significant capacity. Recovering from the failure will take long if boilers need to be restarted. Recently I observed another problem, the high demand for labour in mining and transportation increases the possibility of labour issues halting power generation. It also exposes your system more significantly to workmanship issues. A driver strike almost caused the shutdown of several power stations in Mpumalanga.

I am no longer involved deeply in energy scenarios and I am not sure what the experts think is the best long term strategy now. But the politicians do not seem to be thinking about the hydro-potential up north because I have not heard anyone mention it.

Whose government is it?

Yesterday I got one of the usual snide remarks about "your government" being corrupt based on the fact that I am black, and the recent revelations about the activities of Bosasa.

"It's Gavin Watson's government." was my immediate retort.

The person jerked his head back a little and gave me a very surprised look.

"Of course your side of the border is bad too."

Apparently he had now remembered that I am a Zimbabwean citizen. Maybe he thought I was basing my reply on that, but I knew what his point was and I was replying to that exact point. I could not be bothered by the artificial lines drawn by his ancestors down the middle of our Tsonga, Tswana, Venda, Swazi, Sotho, Khoi, Karanga and Namaqua communities.

Oh by the way do people know there are Xhosa people in Gwanda district of Zimbabwe who were there before colonialists came?

"And Angelo Agrizzi's government too." so I added.

Then the topic became about Agrizzi being a turn coat and a backstabber, but I had made my point. Corruption is not the sole fault of blacks.

When blacks steal big, it is often at the behest of someone else who knows the system and makes off with most of the loot.

Look at the case of the Mozambican minister. He facilitated the theft of US$2 billion of which he was given only 50 million.

Look at the Guptas, they made billions while in the end Zuma had to borrow from other thieves (VBS) just to be able to pay less than 10 million he was eventually asked to pay back over Nkandla.

Look at the Bosasa saga. The company and Watson made over $2billion while those who facilitated the theft were given amounts in the thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands if they were lucky.

Look at my Zimbabwean government? They don't know where US$15 billion worth of diamonds went. The politicians stole mere millions and they think they made a killing. The rest was bilked out of the country.

That kind of, for lack of a better word, idiotic thinking by our politicians is what we need to get rid of.

You go and buy a buffalo for millions. The person selling you the buffalo found it walking in the bush, on land he took from your forefathers.

In any case the buffalo is of no use to you for that much money. The meat is not much more than that of an average cow. You cannot use it for many other things that you can use a cow for such as drawing a plough or scotch-cart.

The buffalo will be expensive to look after because you have to keep it away from people with expensive fences. It is a dangerous animal after all, that can even kill a lion. What more mere humans in the village.

Yet our politicians somehow think they are doing something extra-ordinarily clever when they get bamboozled by marketing sweet-talk, hype and propaganda into making such senseless 'investments'.

Why not invest on a better school or vocational training centre in your village and out of that you can get brick-layers, carpenters, metal-workers and other skilled people who will be of use to your businesses and the wider community, not buffaloes.

Matric is basic education, so that you can read, write and do the simpler sums. Beyond Matric you need a skill.

Why not teach our young people that skills are not just for finding jobs, but also that can eliminate costs by doing basic chores around their homes and communities.

Despite all the things that I list on my CV, I find that the skills that I use most frequently for my own benefit, not for an employer's benefit, are carpentry, metal-work and brick-laying.

The house that I live in now, I extended a couple of rooms over a few weekends, doing all the measuring, plumbing, brick-laying and roofing myself.

Recently my welding machine got stolen but I want to buy another one. What with all the handiwork I do. From fixing trailers to building structures for various uses around the home. I recently made a gantry to take out engines from cars. Professional mechanics are even hiring it from me.

Back to my main point, our leaders get used to steal from us, and they are not even the main beneficiaries of the theft. They do not even seem to see anything wrong when those for whom they steal, shift the blame back, not just to them but to the entire black community, including the real victims of the theft.

Victims today who have been victims of colonial and racist theft before.

Subject Matter vs Programming Tools

I am an old school developer. And I have been struggling to land interviews in the modern world. However once I got into the job my performance on the job usually exceeds expectations.

I have tried to think about the issue. My conclusion is that I am a victim of a world where people look for knowledge of specific tools rather than knowledge of a specific subject matter.

Often people are looking for a Delphi Developer, a C Sharp developer or a Python developer. It seems the assumption is if you know a specific tool inside out then you can handle any subject.

I find it rather strange. Suddenly you do not need to know what the Newton-Raphson method is or entails, all you need to know is C-sharp and wallah you should be able to solve a power system stability problem. You do not need to know what a Voronooi polygon is but you should be able to model a mine's ore body because you are a C++ developer.

I tend to approach things from the other side. You need to know the subject matter thoroughly and then know, not just one, but maybe one or two tools that you can use to solve problems in that subject matter. In fact in my world you do not need to know a specific tool, but the available tool's manual and documentation should contain enough information for you to solve the problem with that tool.

In many subject matters there is a lot more than number crunching involved. Every subject matter has a set of theories, concepts and assumptions you make before you arrive at the number crunching. Very often your number crunching choices depend on what you want to optimally solve based on the concepts and theory of the subject at hand.

I think the industry has suffered a lot from this focus on tooling. I have worked on many projects where it was patently obvious that the developer doing the calculations had no idea why they were doing it but had just been told add these numbers.

I have also worked on projects where people think I am genius but the truth is simply that I understand the concepts more than the average developer.

Unfortunately the job market of today people are looking simply for knowledge of a specific tool. I have been to many interviews where if I ask what nature of problems we are going to be solving, people simply can not answer. People will simply be looking for a developer who knows a specific language.

Very often the questions asked to test such knowledge are classroom questions. That is where I have a problem. Classroom questions are usually asked of someone who has been following a specific syllabus and using specific textbooks for the past couple or so of years. The syllabus and textbooks would have prepared them for question worded in a specific way. In some cases the expected answers would have been provided several times. They often determine how well you have crammed or memorized the contents of your course.

Then there is the question of concepts and theories that may be implemented differently by tools. You guessed right. I am talking about object oriented programming. Object oriented programming does not just fall out of thin air, but it follows from object oriented system analysis. Your system must be constituted of objects intended to solve a specific problem optimally.

The objects may even change depending on what what the problem you are solving is. If you are building a house, then you need to have objects called foundation, walls, roof and fittings. If you are decorating a house, then it is much better to have objects called lounge, bedroom, kitchen, study and bathroom. Your objects should simplify how you solve your problem. They do not need to demonstrate how well you know object oriented programming theory.

If your SYSTEM objects are properly designed, you can PROGRAM your system in any language and STILL be able to follow object oriented programming concepts.

I have this one word of advice for industry. Knowledge of languages specifically designed or restricted to object oriented programming, does not equate to knowledge of object oriented system design. In fact application of OOP to an improperly designed system, can actually worsen the original problem that OOP is trying to solve. That is the problem of simplifying system maintenance.

I have worked on systems where every line of code is in an object as per the language specification, but the system has not been upgraded for decades because the objects are spaghetti. I will admit on some of the systems it was because of deliberate obfuscation by coders (a technique which some people use for intellectual property or job security purposes). However in most the problem was that the system was not correctly designed in the first place.

There are concepts that have to do with system design, and that have an important impact on your system objects, but have nothing to do with object oriented programming per se. I will mention system modularization and component standardization. A system module may form an object, a standard component may form a base class. Such concepts do not apply to programming only. For example in construction a roof or a foundation may be system module and a brick may a standard component. In a properly designed house if you change your bricks from say commons to blocks, you do not need to change your roof in any way.

You may not know anything about firing bricks because you have used cement blocks all your life, but that does not mean you do not know how to build a house.

Back to the subject of programming, I maintain that knowledge of of a subject matter is more important than knowledge of a tool. I have implemented algorithms like Newton-Raphson in several languages (Pascal, C, C++, Modula 2) and I have implemented asymmetric key cryptography in the above languages and PHP, but today I probably can't find a job in scientific or cryptographic programming because they will be looking for a C sharp developer. Never mind that such a developer has absolutely no clue what Gauss-Seidel decomposition is.

Never mind that I actually have knowledge of the mathematical formulas behind the stochasticity of the various encryption algorithms.

If they want a Delphi programmer they will probably ask me class-room questions without even bothering to test my knowledge concerning the subject matter of what they want me to do.

This creates a vicious cycle. The hired person will struggle because they don't have enough knowledge of the subject matter. The superiors will most likely conclude that it is because his knowledge of the programming tool is not up to standard. Then they will set out to look for someone with "more" knowledge of the programming tool.

Why now: The rising tide against Mnangagwa

For years people of Zimbabwe have been called all sorts of names simply because they would not rise against Mugabe.

Suddenly, when it is least expected, they are strongly rising against Mnangagwa.

In the years leading to and soon after independence Robert Mugabe was hugely respected by the black population of Zimbabwe. He was especially respected for the role he played in freeing Zimbabwe from the clutches of racist colonial rule.

Not only was he respected in Zimbabwe, but throughout Africa. His Pan-Africanist and nationalist rhetoric struck a resonant chord with many who had been victims of colonialism. His stance, though very unpopular in the West where the beneficiaries of colonialism reside, had a lot of sympathy in those countries who had been victims.

On the other hand Mnangagwa simply does not have the same gravitas as Mugabe. He does not have the same causality to command respect.

Many Zimbabweans also believed Mugabe had made a good effort for the country but a lot of it had come to nought because he was surrounded by bad people. Emerson Mnangagwa was counted among those on the bad side of Mugabe's coterie.

It is therefore simple logic to understand that Mnangagwa does not have as much leeway among Zimbabweans as Mugabe had. Unfortunately ED himself does not seem to understand that. He seems to think he is a perfect fit for Mugabe's shoes.

The way things are going it should be clear he is not. Zimbabweans are simply not prepared to show as much resilience under him as they did under his former boss.

If Mnangagwa does not start listening to those who have proper economic policies and knowledge, and continues to be misled by the rabble of Mugabe hangers-on that he inherited, he is going to find the going very tough. The hoi polloi are only interested in lining their pockets. They use access to power to skim from the fiscus, not to protect the centre of power.

Mnangagwa should be aware that those close to him are pushing him in a direction that makes them rich, but exposes him to failure. They are racing their truck while they know the engine is about to knock. They don't care about the engine, they just want to get as much kilometrage out of the truck as they can.

I hope The Crocodile has enough presence of mind to realize that what he needs to do now is focus inside Zimbabwe not on globe-trotting.

Zimbabwe's Economic Causal Nexus

I have been listening to the Zimbabwe economic discourse for some time. The entire conversation is nearly always about what others can do for us.

If the Chinese give us mega deals then we will be okay. If the British put us in the Commonwealth then our economy will grow. If the Americans do this. If the Japanese do that.

The solution to Zimbabwe's problems lies with us. When the Munhumutapa empire was among the richest on earth there was no commonwealth. There were no Chinese. Native Americans did not know there is a continent called Africa. Europeans were diseased beggars fleeing from the Black Death and poverty.

So why is it that now Europe, America and China are needed for us to become prosperous? Will they bring anything here?

What is it that is making us poor now? I say it is our mentally colonised minds.

For example why do people the world over want gold and diamonds? It is because those materials are inert. They do not rot or rust. They last forever and they maintain their value forever.

But here in Zimbabwe what do we do? If we dig up gold and diamonds in excess of what we need, we give them away. Then we go and buy huge quantities of things that rust, rot, or, we just end up excreting in the toilet after a few hours. Cars, fancy clothes, expensive beer and food.

If a typical Zimbabwean finds gold or diamonds worth ten million dollars, they will go and sell all of it, and buy ten supercars. A car is mostly iron and plastic so you can be sure it will rust and degrade and have almost no value in about ten years time.

The people we are selling the gold and diamonds to, what are they doing? Most are locking it up in safes. They know even after 20 years those substances will have much higher, or at least, the same value. In those twenty years, gold and diamonds do not need a service, they do not need mechanics, they do not need replacement parts and they do not consume fuel to be useful. They do not depreciate. It is called investment.

Yes a car is useful for transportation but for that you only need one or two good cars, not ten very expensive ones.

In Zimbabwe we take investable materials and exchange them with consumables. Consumables get consumed. If you buy food worth $100 in one sitting (because it is a 'high class' restaurant) once it served on the plate in front of you that is it. It has lost its value. Even if you do not want to eat it you cannot sell it to the next customer, but your $100 is gone for good.

We also have another very serious problem. The belief that government has the right to take money from people and use it for what it deems 'higher' priorities.

I am not going to take the risk of driving on Chiweta mountain at night, trying to earn foreign currency, just to hand the money over to someone else through the government. I am not doing it so that the government can take what Tanzanians have paid me, and hand it over to a minister who is sleeping in his Chisipite house while I risk being murdered by robbers on remote stretches of road.

That practice of taking people's money and handing it over to others, is what has killed Zimbabwe's economy. It removes the incentive for people to go out and earn more. Rather than go and negotiate the risky Kapiringozi at night, I would rather stay in the safety of my house.

If I am a foreigner with a lot of money, I am not going to let it sit in a Zimbabwean account. I will only bringing in what is absolutely necessary. Why take the risk that the Zimbabwe government will take my foreign currency, and give me something that I can't use.

As long as the practice of foreign currency 'allocations' continues, whether by committee, whether by command allocation, the Zimbabwe economy will not recover. The bottom line is people will not have confidence and trust in the Zimbabwean monetary system. It will be seen as a high risk area and it is natural for people to avoid risks.

So my advise to Mthuli Ncube is disband your committee. Let the banks deal with their customers without government interference. Money is a substitute for property and should be treated like any other property.

Mthuli, I cannot come and take your suit and allocate to my father, because I deem my sister's marriage ceremony to be more important than your business meeting. Chances are if I do it again and again you won't bother buy suits anymore.

But that is exactly what our government is doing with foreign currency. They will take a miner's foreign currency and allocate it to a minister because they deem the ministers trip to China to be more important than the miner importing spare parts for their bulldozers and other machinery.

That practice also has knock on effects. Where the miner were planning to mine a hundred tonnes of ore, now they can only mine maybe forty because they have to spend a too much time just sitting and waiting for an allocation.

Yes. The foreign currency allocation practice is actually reducing Zimbabwe's capacity to earn more foreign currency. It is a serious bottleneck for producers.

It creates a vicious cycle. We allocate scarce foreign currency to non-producers. We earn less because of that. We introduce more stringent allocation rules because there is less to go round, and we end up earning lesser foreign currency, worsening the problem.

Therefore end the allocation sytem. If ministers or the president cannot find forex for trips ngavagare kumba vadye sadza. Let them stay at home, there is plenty sadza they won't starve to death. Money should never ever be taken from producers for that purpose.