Grace Mugabe has very badly exposed her husband

The man needs Zanu-PF stalwarts

Which ever way I look at what is happening in Zimbabwe, I see Robert Mugabe having moved out of his safe zone. Splintering Zanu-PF is like two brothers starting a fight with huge antagonistic bouncers cracking their knuckles in the wings itching to get their hands on one of them.

Whichever side Mugabe IS NOT on, is likely to receive influential, if not material, help from the powerful and rich West. Those guys' hands are itching to get hold of Mugabe over what he did to their interests, not only through land reform, but through other spiteful policies that resulted in closure of mostly Western owned industries in Zimbabwe.

An example is the Look East policy enacted after Mugabe was banned from travelling to the West. It was spiteful and caused significant damage to Western owned Zimbabwe industries and the country's economy.

Those who blinkeredly created disunity in Zanu-PF have left Mugabe very, very badly exposed. When Zanu-PF splinters the side that gets assistance from outside is likely to come out on top. They will get valuable intelligence to outmanoeuvre the other.

Why is that important? A country like Zimbabwe simply does not have the wherewithal to counter say the CIA's technological sophistry and reach. They can listen phone conversations, track people and vehicles almost at will. Not to mention that buildings are probably crawling with listening devices.

Whatever is discussed it is very very likely the Americans will know much of it and feed intelligence to the side side they prefer.

Neighbouring countries, especially South Africa, facing problems because of the influx of Zimbabwean economic refugees not likely to mount a defence of Mugabe like Thabo Mbeki did.

I haven't made up my mind yet, but the fact that Chiwenga was on a visit to China just before he made his threat to 'step in' means that the G40 faction cannot hope for much support from that quarter.

Even inside the country it is entirely delusional to think that Grace carries the electoral clout to win an election. It is also completely misreading history and the country to think that plain thuggery can keep her in power. Plain thuggery failed to keep Ian Smith in power.

Robert Mugabe was genuinely popular especially in the early days of independence. He was even loved by the West. That support has waned, but he has been lucky to have no meaningful challengers. By people meaningful I mean challengers with a clear people-centric message.

Whoever is on Mugabe's side will be fools if they do not realize they are the ones whose fortunes are very very thinly stretched. Whatever advantage they have inside Zanu-PF, in the long run, will be cancelled out by the very powerful interests likely to support the other side.

So far noone split from Zanu-PF has made significant effort to get outside help. But the temperature of the factionalism now is such that they have no choice.

The people who are being shed now have liberation credentials which means they are far much more likely to get a more sympathetic ear from fellow liberation movements like ANC, FRELIMO, MPLA, SWAPO, etc than the MDC would get.

For the factionalists in Zanu-PF their best hope is to keep everyone on board. Keep Zanu-PF united.

Ngavarege kudziirwa vachikanganwa kunge mbeva dziri mubani risina mwena. They should not gallivant around like mice in a plain without boltholes. When the cat comes there will be nowhere to run.