So what does the political future hold for Zimbabwe?

So what does the political future hold for Zimbabwe?

My gut feeling is that political parties without liberation credentials, that is the MDC and its various mutations, are the biggest political losers in current developments. Their campaign platform has been little apart from Mugabe must go.

Now he is going and they are not even part of making him go. If I may ask what is their relevance now?

In fact, they spend much of their political lives insulting and denigrating the military who are bringing the change they failed to.

Zimbabweans, especially the rural population, do have an affinity to politicians with liberation credentials.

I am willing to bet all my cows that we have not seen the last of general Chiwenga on the political scene. There will be a lot of relief and gratitude among Zimbabweans that he managed a very, very difficult situation without bloodshed. That is a significant political investment in his benefit.

Is Emmerson Mnangagwa the next main man? It is clear he imagines himself to be but I doubt. Many Zimbabweans are not comfortable with his history as an enforcer for Mugabe. The nickname Ngwena stems from that people for a long time have said he has the cruelty of a crocodile.

I am personally not comfortable with his regionalistic rhetoric. My home district was part of the Midlands and fits into the circle of what he defines as 'his' people but for me that is a myopic view for a national politician to ever espouse.

His definition of Karanga ethnicity is anyway plain wrong. It based on  British drawn provincial boundaries that did not even take into account ethnicity. It has nothing to do with ethnic identity as defined by Shona culture.

I also do not think General Chiwenga would take power and hand it over to someone else. He would probably be keenly aware of what happened in the history of ZANLA. Rex Nhongo supressed a rebellion and handed power to Mugabe. We all know Rex Nhongo's (aka Solomon Mujuru) ending was not good.

What about Joice Mujuru. She has some political capital and if she were to face Mnangagwa in an election I think she would win. However with Chiwenga in the picture the script changes considerably.

Jonathan Moyo is living evidence that intellectualism does not amount to political skill. When you are a good intellectual others can use you but sometimes you cannot use yourself.

My gut feeling is that at some point in the near future we are likely to have a President Chiwenga.