South Africa is made up of two major ethnic groups.
Sotho, Tswana and Pedi (also referred to as Northern Sotho) are closely related tribes of South Africa with the languages being mutually intelligible, almost like Shona dialects.
The Zulu, Xhosa, Swazi and Ndebele are the Nguni based languages also mutually intellible.
The Sotho mainly occupy the Free State province, the Tswana are in the North West (bordering Botswana) and the Pedi are in Limpopo centred around Polokwane.
The Xhosa are Eastern Cape, the Zulu in kwaZulu-Natal (as if that needs an explanation), the Swazi and Ndebele in Mpumalanga.
The Venda and Shangaani (Tsonga) are relatively small groups who many South Africans associate with Zimbabweans and Mozambicans anyway. They are unlikely to have much of a decisive impact on the South African political landscape.
Julius Malema a Pedi is backing Kgalema Motlante said to be a Tswana with roots in the North West, born in Alexandra and brought up in Johannesburg, for President. He is also loudly backing Fikile Mbalula from the Free State (Sotho) for post of secretary general.
On the other side current Secretary General is Gwede Mantashe a Xhosa allied to Jacob Zuma a Zulu.
In short the ANC leadership battle is largely split along Sotho-Nguni lines. The ANC top six are reportedly split in half themselves.
From talking to my fellow workers here I gather that there is little love lost for Zulu's as they are perceived to have been used by the dying apartheid regime in the early 90s (the so called Third Force) to butcher their fellow blacks in a bid to weaken the ANC.
Until the election of Zuma, Zulus almost always backed their tribal based Inkatha Freedom Party. Whites backed their own tribal party the Democratic Alliance. The ANC was for everyone else. It looks like the ANC took a conscious decision to bring in Jacob Zuma to try attract Zulus. They succeeded, kwaZulu-Natal is now the ANC biggest province. It remains to be seen whether the trend will extend beyond Zuma's tenure.
Until the ANC made the decision to appoint Zuma, many people thought that no Zulu would lead SA because of the 1990s Third Force killings. While the appointment of Zuma (SA Presidents are appointed by a majority in Parliament not directly elected) seems to have brought in the Zulus from the cold, it seems they are drifting together with the Xhosas and other Nguni speaking tribes.
The first two Presidents of South Africa, Mandela and Mbeki were Xhosas. Particularly during Mbeki's later years, there were already muffled grumbles about Xhosas 'taking all the power for themselves'. Apparently the push for Motlante is driven by the feeling that it is now time for a non-Nguni after 20 years of Nguni leadership.
It looks like the ANC is headed to be split along ethnic lines over the Malema issue. The ANC structures in Limpopo and Mpumalanga have signaled that they are backing the Malema camp. He addressed an ANC Women's League meeting in Polokwane where he was referred to as 'our son' who 'will remain with us throughout' indicating that Malema is going nowhere.
To me it looks like Zuma's personal battle for survival might just exacerbate the tribal fault lines in South African society.
It may not have been wise for Zuma to pull out all the stops in his battle to silence Malema, even though he is doing it to try and ensure a second term for himself, not for tribal reasons. He also does not seem to have statesman like magnanimity and stoicism. His mocking of Malema, and by extension his backers, by quiping "it's cold outside the ANC" is a case in point.
A man who has fallen once is the one who throws the hardest punch because he doesn't want to fall again. Zuma himself is an example of how a man throws very hard punches once he gets up from a fall. Look how he felled Mbeki.
There is also a disturbing tendency which sees those who express opposition to Zuma being descended upon by government agencies. The Limpopo government headed by a key Malema ally was taken to task by the finance ministry for practices that seem to be also common in other provinces. Malema himself is now being investigated by the tax revenue services as well as an elite police unit. To me it rings bells of Mugabe opponents being investigated by the various arms of government including the CIO.
Famed for the prowess of his loins, Zuma's marriage practices may also not be good for unifying South Africa. All his wives and the women who he is publicly known to have bedded are Zulus. How could it be possible that for a man who has spend much of his time in Gauteng where Tswana and Sotho communities are numerous, has never laid his eye on a woman from another ethnicity whom he could have fancied?
For centuries the marriage practices of leaders have been known to unify or divide communities. In African culture it was quite common to exchange brides to cement ties between kingdoms or communities. Zuma seems to be taking brides from one community only.
The era of Zuma ambitions could prove to be the most damaging for the ANC. The way he challenged for leadership against Mbeki has already seen a split in the ANC. COPE was formed precisely because Zuma/Mbeki power struggle.
The way Mbeki was recalled was widely seen to have been a deliberate humiliation. The ANC was saved from loosing support in the Xhosa heartland, Eastern Cape only by Mandela's cool head. He came out in support of the ANC which was treated as a signal by Xhosas to remain with the ANC.
Now Zuma's battle to for a second term has pitted him against a popular and very loud-mouthed youngster who many see as a proxy for a powerful faction within the ANC. The ANC are extremely lucky that the power struggle that happened in COPE, after they split away, may have dampened the appetite for another split. But they should never assume that a second split won't happen.
What there can be no doubt about is that the fate of the ANC will mirror the fate of South Africa. By dint of the fact that the ANC represents the vast majority of South Africans, it's fortunes or misfortunes will rub off onto to the country in a big way. The fact that the ANC seems headed for trouble means that South Africa is headed for trouble.
There is no chance that the DA will grow from being a largely white tribal party in time to take over from the ANC, that is if the DA will grow at all. Never mind their efforts to woo black voters by elevating a rather buxom young lady whose only notable attribute is a near-perfect English accent.
She is a member of what in Zimbabwe would be derisively referred to as the 'nose brigade', people who speak with a nasal twang in attempts to imitate European accents. South Africans are even more derisive of black people who merely mostly speak English (as I have personally discovered on many occasions) let alone with a European accent. It is considered being a show-off and pompous.
The ANC is a cross roads where they need a very skilled navigator. I don't think many people realize the significance of Mangaung as the cross roads where the ANC's, and South Africa's, future is going to be made or broken.
It is a conference where not only factions of the ANC are pitted against each other, but one where revenge and tolerance will also be fighting their own unannounced battle. If revenge wins, then the ANC and South Africa are headed for trouble.
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