The Arab Spring is becoming a Middle East nightmare.

The Arab Spring is becoming a Middle East nightmare. Signs are that things are degenerating into a region-wide sectarian pogrom mainly pitting Shiite against Sunni Muslims.

The West, out of unbelievably stupid short-sightedness, having been cheerleading Sunni states led by Turkey, who have been sponsoring a violent uprising in the majority Sunni but Shia led Syria. If the Shia states of the region start sponsoring violence in Sunni led countries with substantial Shia populations, the Middle East will become a hell on earth.

The seems to be no good reason for the West's petulant disposition towards that main Shiite run states, Iran and Syria. In the case of Iran it seems the USA cannot let the bygone of its embassy's invasion in 1979 be a real bygone. Syria is seems is paying the price for not having signed an agreement with Israel.

American military power is absolutely useless in controlling close fought sectarian wars where outsiders find it impossible to know who belongs to which sect without being expressly told. They would be fooling themselves if they imagine that they can influence happenings in the middle east to a predictable outcome. Right now they are having problems figuring out who is Taliban, and who is not with deadly results for their personnel.

The situation has become like a forest fire. It is easy to start but knowing which way it is gonna blow is impossible. The wind might change direction any time.

The West do not seem to have learnt anything from the Libyan crisis which spilled over as far afield as Mali. Their notion of what the Libyans and other people in the region wanted has proved to be false. Instead of evolving into a stable democracy the whole thing has become a chaotic mess of tribal and clan rivalries.

The best approach would be to de-escalate the situation in the middle east as much as possible. The Western approach of cheerleading violence in some hot spots while hopping others will remain stable is simply playing Russian roulette with an entire subcontinent.

It would be fallacy to believe that the West can achieve a predictable outcome in the region. For one they do not seem to understand the power of culture. They naively believe that every people in the world want to have a Western style democracy.

I personally believe that if freedom is given a chance most systems will evolve to near the Western model of democracy. However that model is not Jack's beanstalk that can be planted and reach sky-high overnight.

Throwing dishonesty into the cauldron, as the West did in Iraq and Libya, only serves to make things much more difficult. It does not yield the quick results that the West seem to have been hoping for.

Also when hyenas become the champions of a goat's freedom you can only suspect that they want it to wander into the forest. It is difficult to imagine the West with their history of colonialism, racism and oppression becoming true champions of freedom.

It also makes the long term situation even more unpredictable. Right now nobody dares foretell whether Iraq or Libya will be stable democracies in ten years time, or will be in a sectarian mess.

I took the United States four centuries to build the democracy they have. I do not know why they persistently believe it will take other countries four months.