What is the fight in Syria really about?

What is the fight in Syria really about? Is it about freedom and democracy?

Bashar is not a democrat, far from it. Neither is Shaikh Khalifa, nor that other king whose country beheads underage girls. They are the chief sponsors of the fighting in Syria.

Of course these two would not be so emboldened without American blessings, or at the very least American indecisiveness. It looks like the Americans are playing Russian roulette with terrorism in Syria.

They were worried that the jihadist al-Nusra front was too pre-eminent in the Iraqi opposition. Now they are telling their client states to supply more weapons to the 'moderate' rebels. There are hoping to lure the people who had joined the jihadi side back to the moderate side.

The foolishness of this policy is patently obvious. The jihadi fighters could join the moderates get weapons and either simply walk back to the jihadi side with the weapons, or simply apply their jihadi policies on the ground with those weapons.

The same mistake that was made in Najibullah's Afghanistan and Somalia is about to be made again. Here is how. As the fight heats up and individual commanders on the ground struggle to stamp their authority, they will morph into warlords. As warlordism takes hold, loyalties are far much more likely to be cemented along clan lines.

Overall loyalty to a particular cause will then be determined by contingency and survivalist necessities of the moment. Once such a fluid state has been reached it will be years or even generations before any central body is able to stamp its authority again.

Also overall loyalty of a group is likely to be determined by the deep personal convictions of individuals in the groups involved. I do not know what the deep personal convictions of Syrian rebel leaders are. Neither should the Americans fool themselves into thinking they do. Did they know the deep personal convictions of Osama when they were sponsoring him against the Soviets.

To cite an even more recent example, did they know he deep personal convictions of Tamerlan Tsarnaev when they were mentoring him to an adult in the USA. In the case of Tamerlan, despite being warned by the Russians they couldn't pick it up that he was dangerous.

I don't blame the FBI for that failure, some people are simply good at bluffing especially if they know what those to be bluffed are looking for. It is as easy as putting on the make-up that you know a suitor wants to see.

To me the strategy to democratise Syria is very simple. Force an election even with Asad in power. He belongs to a minority, he is bound to loose. Even if he manages to retain a fingerhold, that grip would soon slip away in a few years after another round of elections.

The big advantage of such a strategy is that central authority would hold, containing many threats. The transition would be gradual allowing population groups to adjust. Of course external powers seeking to influence the outcome may not get the outcomes they are hoping for.

The Americans should also be wary of another risk, falling for the small brother syndrome. The small brother will start fights he can't possibly win knowing that big brother has got the brawn. American allies will take chances relying on American influence and power.

It happened in Libya. The French pushed for a fight. It was the Americans who provided the backbone for that fight. It was also them who took the hardest blows thrown back. They lost ambassador Stephens.

In Syria it is the Saudis and the Qatari who are pushing for a fight. They cannot provide the military solution by themselves but they are hopping to drag the Americans into fighting for their interests. Their reasons are essentially sectarian, they are Sunnis and Assad belongs to a Shiite sect.

The Russians, at this point, may have finally figured out that the demonisation of Syria has got nothing to do with human rights but might have everything to do with rolling back their influence. If they can't see that, they will never be able to see anything even if you give them glasses the size of Siberia.

Syria, has become nothing but a proxy battlefield. The main battle seems to be on Sunni vs Shia muslim lines. It has drawn in the regional powers of both sects. It has also drawn in the world powers with a resolutely pro-Assad Russia on the one side and the indecisive Americans on the other.